When we first wrote about Silver in November of 2024, it was trading around $30. After about a year, it’s at $80 with a stupendous 150% return in just one year! Through 2024, we were extremely bullish on both Gold & Silver. We went overweight Silver last year, around Oct-Dec'24. (Refer to our post in Nov'24). We reiterated our bullish stance on silver on 2nd Sep'25.
We followed this up with a very short-term cautious stance on Silver on 9th Oct as future prices moved to backwardation. And silver saw a correction of almost 15-20% for about 2 months thereon.
As we see today, silver has surprised almost everyone. We are equally amazed by the ferocity & magnitude of this rally. When we gave the call Gold: Silver ratio was around 90 levels. Today, the ratio is down to 55. The average ratio for the whole of the 21st Century has been 69.
We think Silver has outrun Gold for a pretty long stretch now. Beware that drawdowns in Silver (unlike Gold) can be pretty sharp and fierce. Case in point is the 2-month correction in Oct-Nov'25. And, we think it’s time for investors to take a cautious note on this. It's a frenzied rally - and can perhaps go a little longer, but we think it's time to trim positions by atleast 50%. Kindly note that we remain relatively bullish on Gold as there is a lot of catch-up for the yellow metal. Separate note on that soon!
We would again initiate a buy on Silver as and when we see a drawdown. We are ok to leave some money on the table, but we want to be the first one off the table.
To quote from the famous movie 'Margin Call' (2011)
Sam Rogers: You are panicking
John Tuld: If you're first out of the door, that's not called panicking.
In this case, we are not panicking, but even in Euphoria, the rules of the game don’t change.
For any portfolio-specific actions, please reach out to our team @ Moneyfront and @ Ultima Wealth.
Here's wishing everyone unbound joy and success in the year ahead - Happy 2026 ✨🧿